Most companies are probably relying on their anti-virus software to save them. This is too bad, because the explosion in customized malware means it probably won't.Anti-virus software just does not work against most recent malware. The table from the Verizon report shows a drastic upswing in customized malware and my experience tells me that doesn't tell half the story. Even only small changes will often evade anti-virus software.
I'm not saying anything new here. Anyone that does penetration tests, reverse engineers malware, writes exploits, or is involved with information security in a number of ways already knows that anti-virus software is terrible at detecting new malware. I have even written about it before and pointed out that more subtle methods of exploitation aren't always necessary because of the effectiveness of commodity malware.
My question is, do we really need anti-virus software?
When you take into account the amount of resources spent running anti-virus in the enterprise, is it a good investment in risk reduction? We pay for hours worked to setup the anti-virus infrastructure, update, and troubleshoot. If you are in an enterprise, you're paying for the software, not using a free alternative. You're probably paying for support and also paying for hardware.
What does it get you? I find malware on a weekly basis, sometimes daily, that is not detected by the major vendors. I submit the malware to some of these vendors and places like VirusTotal, but the responses from anti-virus vendors are inconsistent at best. Even after definitions are updated, I'll then run across malware that is obviously just an altered version of the previous but is once again not detected.
I don't pretend to have the answers, but I do wonder if all the resources spent on anti-virus by a business, particularly large or enterprise businesses, might be better spent somewhere else. Is it really worth tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in software, hours, and hardware to make sure old malware is detected? If not, how much is it worth? Does the occasional quick response to emerging malware make it more worthwhile? If you have enough influence on the vendor, does being able to contact them directly to help protect against a specific attack make it more valuable?
Anti-virus software is too ingrained in corporate culture to think it is realistic that companies will stop using it altogether, but we need to keep asking these types of questions.